# Evidence package — the grounded-reference programme (A13 to A18)

*2026-09-12. How to find, check and regenerate every figure in the two
manuscripts, *History-grounded reference and transfer* and *Authority
and reference repair*. The package is the repository itself at a named
commit; this note is its index. Hashes of every listed artefact are in
`grounded-reference-evidence-manifest.md`, generated from the committed
objects by `tools/evidence_manifest.py`.*

## What a reader can check, and how

Every claim in the manuscripts is one of three kinds, and each kind
points at a different artefact:

1. **A preregistered verdict** (A14's formation and transfer penalty;
   A16's dimension-specific reading; A17's inconclusive verdicts; A18's
   authority, correctness and restoration verdicts). Check it by finding
   the study's frozen text in the preregistration, the rule it names,
   and the analysis output the rule was computed on; then regenerate the
   output with the command below and compare.
2. **A descriptive figure** (A17's event-note cells; the qualification
   set's production counts; usage). Check it in the same analysis
   outputs, in the cells marked as descriptive; no verdict is attached.
3. **An accounting statement** (calls, attempts, retries, pauses,
   deviations, audits). Check it in the driver logs, the seed logs, the
   preregistration's dated amendments, and the audit output.

## The record, study by study

| study | frozen text (commit) | amendments | records | analysis output | tool and command |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A13 | preregistration entry A13 (aac5d43) | ruling f091285 | `results/dialects/history/a13-s10…12-deepseek` | per-seed summaries in the result note | `tools/summarize_history.py --run <dir>` |
| A14 | A14 (78fa0bb) | A14.1 b13489a; A14.2 in the preregistration | `a14-s13…28-deepseek` (`.failed1` attempts kept) | `a14-population.json`, `.all16.json`, `.prereg.json` | `python tools/summarize_population.py --seeds 13-28 --pattern "results/dialects/history/a14-s{seed}-deepseek" --expected-model deepseek-v4-flash` |
| A15 | A15 3388de1; A15.1 36c1b43 | A15.2 220ed3e; A15.3 ecb3895; A15.4 in the preregistration | `a15-s29…59`, `a15pre-s45…47` | `a15-structure.json` | `python tools/summarize_structure.py --seeds 48-59 --pattern "results/dialects/history/a15-s{seed}-deepseek-flash" --expected-model deepseek-flash` |
| A16 | A16 27eaecd | A16.1 a5a3542; A16.2 6ef7f67; A16.3 50be940; audit note in the result note | `a16-s60…71-deepseek-flash` | `a16-crossed.json` | `python tools/summarize_structure.py --seeds 60-71 --pattern "results/dialects/history/a16-s{seed}-deepseek-flash" --expected-model deepseek-flash` |
| A17.0 qualification set | A17.0 30f3b1c; A17.0c–e in the preregistration; A17.0f 2cbd00e; A17.0g 289ae53; A17.0g.1 f93e461 | bookkeeping entries dated in the preregistration; the carrier and multiplicity rulings | `a17pre-s72…107` (aborted, failed and mislaunch copies kept and labelled) | `a17pre-decision-*.json` (archived); `a17pre-qualification-audit.json` (written rule) | `python tools/audit_qualification.py --out results/dialects/history/a17pre-qualification-audit.json` |
| A17 | A17 2b5f99e (implementation 86d8e06); frozen text `a17-freeze-proposal.md` 39c9908 | A17.1 e20d5bc; A17.2 49b44e6; A17.3 78537f1 | `a17-s108…119-codex-gpt-6-astra`; `a17-driver.log` | `a17-repair.json`; `a17-r0-crossed.json` | `python tools/summarize_repair.py --runs results/dialects/history --seeds 108-119 --model codex-gpt-6-astra --out results/dialects/history/a17-repair.json` |
| A18 | A18 1090174 (implementation eb0da6a); frozen text `a18-design-proposal.md` v2.1 | none; `tools/power_a18.py` for the planning scenarios | `a18-s108…119-codex-gpt-6-astra`; `a18-driver.log` | `a18-authority.json` | `python tools/summarize_a18.py --runs results/dialects/history --seeds 108,110-119 --model codex-gpt-6-astra --out results/dialects/history/a18-authority.json` |

Every regeneration is deterministic: the bootstrap uses generator seed
20260909 with 10,000 resamples, and the tools read only the archived
records. The tests that pin the analysis rules (`tests/test_population.py`,
`tests/test_history.py`, `tests/test_repair.py`,
`tests/test_repair_analysis.py`, `tests/test_authority.py`) run with
`python -m pytest tests/<file> -q`; the scripted-LLM tests need the
the simulator simulator and skip without it.

## What is in a run directory

`config.json` (the frozen configuration, the resolved model identity,
the accepted identifiers, the relations for crossed designs);
`calls.jsonl` (every model call: tag, request, response, resolved
model, usage, wall time, attempts); `episodes.jsonl` and `acts.jsonl`
(formation); `notebooks.json` and `records.json` (the checkpoint);
`qualification.jsonl`, `competence.jsonl`, `gate_pre.json`, `gate.json`
(the gates); `probes.jsonl` (R0 exchanges with the frozen classification
per note); `probes_<condition>.jsonl` and `done_<condition>.json` (A17
and A18 passes); `done.json`. Attempts that did not complete are kept
beside the records with `.failed1`, `.failed2`, `.aborted` or
`.mislaunch-appended` suffixes and are never read into a decision.

## The rulings

Every panel ruling that changed a claim or a design is quoted or
paraphrased in the preregistration at its date, and the manuscript
corrections that followed each review are listed in the two review
files `review-bbcfe62.md` and `review-bbcfe62-summary.md` and in the
commit messages 48b36ec, 3225c71, a2b49d7, 781c086.

## Known limits of the record

The DeepSeek pathway archived the resolved model per call and detected
the provider's model change; the Codex pathway reports no answering
model per call, so gpt-6-astra runs carry the requested identifier
only. Usage on subscriptions is tokens, not a bill. A17 ran two draws a
probe where its frozen text said three (A17.2). The "shared acts"
relation of A16 is planned, not recorded. The qualification decisions
were made with a predicate that omitted the written production
threshold and with a stricter invalid-act cutoff than written; the
audit tool reproduces both the archived and the written-rule readings.
The three 2026 arXiv papers and the four classical citations in the
related-work sections were verified against their records on 12
September 2026; the recorded prior-work search of the same day, its
queries, hits, verdicts and API refusals, is in
`grounded-reference-search-protocol.md`.